Monthly Report January 2026

On the financial markets, January 2026 was marked by geopolitical tensions over Greenland and the appointment of Kevin Warsh by Donald Trump as a candidate for head of the US Federal Reserve FED, who must now be confirmed by the US Senate. Kevin Warsh is considered a well-qualified candidate who will presumably also preserve the independence of the US Federal Reserve; his appointment was accordingly received positively by the financial markets.

Overall, there was a subdued start to the new year on the stock exchanges. The Swiss Performance Index achieved a zero return (0.0%), the SMI with large-capitalized stocks was -0.6%, and the index of medium-sized and smaller companies SPI Extra was 2.2%.
The MSCI World industrialized market stock index returned 2.2% in USD and -0.5% in CHF, the DAX was 0.2% in EUR and -1.3% in CHF, the emerging market equity index 8.9% in USD and 5.9% in CHF.

As expected, the US Federal Reserve kept key interest rates unchanged. Depending on the market, bond markets achieved a slightly positive or slightly negative result. Gold only gained strongly before making a sharp correction at the end of the month and closed the month at 14.3% in USD and 11.5% in CHF.

Tensions over Greenland intensify

After US President Trump publicly stated shortly after his election that he would “get” Greenland or bring the island under US control, he significantly stepped up his rhetoric in January 2026. The USA would do something about Greenland whether those affected liked it or not. He would like to make a “deal” on this; if not, then he would act “the hard way.” He threatened opposing European states with an increase in tariffs.

Greenland is of strategic importance for the USA on several levels. The island can be used as a location to monitor shipping traffic through the gap between Greenland and Great Britain; a route from the Arctic to the North Atlantic that Russian warships also use. China is working with Russia to expand a Polar Silk Road in order to open up new trade routes and strategically influence global traffic flows. The USA sees some catching up to do here because it has long underestimated the geostrategic importance of the Arctic. With the melting of ice in recent years, transport routes through the Arctic are becoming increasingly free and the extraction of critical raw materials such as rare earths is becoming possible.

The Greenlandic parties reacted unanimously and said that they were neither Americans nor Danes and that the future of Greenland could only be determined by Greenlanders. The Danish Prime Minister warned that a US takeover would mean the end of NATO. After severe European criticism, there was a surprising turn of events: Trump announced a fundamental agreement with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and withdrew his threatened tariffs against European states. The agreement provides for the expansion of the Arctic security architecture, with the US potentially building new military bases and being involved in future investments and resource projects. According to NATO, negotiations between Denmark, Greenland and the USA will continue — with the aim of ensuring that Russia and China never gain a foothold in Greenland, either economically or militarily.

Fund and mandate performance

Almost all format investments were able to achieve positive performance in this market environment. Of the equity funds, Format Aktien Schweiz medium-sized and smaller companies performed best, with an increase of 3.9%, which significantly exceeded the performance of the SPI Extra benchmark of 2.2%. The performance of funds and mandates since the beginning of the year can be viewed via the following link.

Outlook

As was the case last year, the US administration is stirring up a lot of dust, which makes it difficult to soberly assess current economic developments. The analysts' forecast that the profits of companies in the MSCI World are expected to increase by an average of over 10% in the current year represents support for the equity markets.

Best regards
Matthias Hug and Markus Lackner

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