Monthly Report February 2026

Market development in February 2026

Due to major advances in agent-based AI, fears of disruptions in various sectors, such as software development, increased sharply in February. Accordingly, there have been redeployments in companies that are counted among the beneficiaries of this development or that are little affected by AI due to their business model.

The Swiss Performance Index benefited from major redeployments into heavyweights Nestlé and Novartis and rose by 5.7%. The DAX and the world stock index MSCI World also rose by 3.0% in EUR and by 0.8% in USD. While the emerging market index confirmed its strong start to the year with a further gain of 5.5%, the American S&P 500 suffered a slight decline of 0.8% (both in USD).

Oil prices have already risen with the massive merger of US naval and air forces in the Persian Gulf and rose by around 10% in USD in February. Against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical risks, the price of gold also continued to rise and was 7.9% higher in USD terms.

Israel and the USA attack Iran

Since the end of February, Israel has been flying air strikes on Iran together with the USA and, according to its own statements, has achieved air sovereignty. According to consistent reports, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the attacks. The Iranian armed forces responded with rockets and drones, which were launched not only at Israel but also at targets in the various Gulf states. According to the Israeli side, the operation will last “as long as necessary.”

In the first few days after the outbreak of war, global financial markets reacted with price levies. The main driver of the increased uncertainty is the rise in oil prices of over 15% since the end of February. In particular, the de facto blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which transports around 20 percent of global oil exports, is fueling nervousness. A prolonged blockage would lead to temporary shortages on the world market.

It is likely that Israel and the USA will stick to the concerted air strikes and that there will be no prolonged conflict. As long as the Strait of Hormuz is not permanently blocked and significant production capacities are not destroyed, there should be no extensive disruption of the oil market.

In his second year in office, Donald Trump is in a difficult domestic political situation and is confronted with falling poll figures. A majority of US citizens are dissatisfied with their economic record and the actions of the ICE immigration authority are also repelling many Americans. Trump must expect that the Republicans will lose one or even both chambers in the midterm elections in November and that the president will lose a significant part of his freedom of action. The Supreme Court has already prohibited him from imposing customs duties on many countries on the basis of an emergency law. The attack on Iran could therefore be at least partly a diversionary manoeuvre away from the domestic political situation. For this plan to work, the war against Iran must not last too long, cost the lives of just a few US soldiers and quickly lead back to lower energy prices so that Trump can present the outcome as a success.

Fund and mandate performance

The strong performance of Nestlé and Novartis drove the development of the SPI. Excluding the three index heavyweights (including Roche), the 2.8% index would have achieved less than half of the actual monthly return of 5.7%. Because balanced investing enables better investment results in the long term, our portfolios are structurally underweighted by index heavyweights. In addition, stocks of less fast-growing companies with more defensive business models developed above average, while some of our portfolio companies showed negative price reactions to mostly good operating results for the year. As a result, the Vermögenanlagen format performed lower than the corresponding comparative indices in February. The performance of funds and mandates since the beginning of the year can be viewed via the following link.

Outlook

Most players, such as the USA and the states bordering the Persian Gulf, are interested in rapidly easing the situation in the Middle East. If Israel and the USA manage to effectively limit the opportunities for Iranian counterstrikes, the effects on the global economy are likely to remain manageable. As a result of increased uncertainty, short-term increases and increased volatility in energy prices are expected. Since the oil market showed production surpluses before the escalation, prices are likely to normalize rapidly if it eases. As a rule, military events only have a temporary impact on markets. In most cases, the previous price levels are reached again soon, which is why, based on the current assessment, we have not made any risk reduction in the investment format.

Best regards
Matthias Hug and Markus Lackner

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